Stat Savvy Students Predict Hillary Clinton will be Next U.S. President

Of the more than 450 high-school and college students who predicted the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election as part of ASA’s Prediction 2016 contest, 97 percent of participants predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. The median of contest participant projections show that Clinton will win 332 electoral votes to Trump’s 204, and 49.3 percent of the popular vote to Trump’s 43.3 percent.

Key projections (based on the collection of student entries) include:

  • Clinton will win 26 states (and the District of Columbia) to Trump’s 24 states.
  • Among the battleground states, Trump will win Arizona, Iowa and Ohio and Clinton will win Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.
  • 132 million voters will cast ballots in the 2016 election, the largest voter turnout in absolute numbers in United States history.
Stat Savvy Students Predict Hillary Clinton will be Next U.S. President

“The Prediction 2016 contest provides an exciting way to engage students in this historic election through statistical thinking, a key skill in our increasingly data-driven world,” said ASA Executive Director Ron Wasserstein. “With so much at stake – and such partisan rhetoric dominating the discussion – using statistics to predict the outcome of the election enables us to focus on the facts rather than the provocative headlines.”

Submissions were received from students in 19 states representing the following institutions:

Bellaire High School (TX)
Brecksville Broadview Heights High School (OH)
Col. Zadok Magruder High School (MD)
Franklin Regional High School (PA)
The Harker School (CA)
LaGuardia High School (NY)
Lowell High School (CA)
Lower Merion High School in Pennsylvania
Mamaroneck High School in New York
Marin Academy (CA)
Mt. Lebanon High School (PA)
Miami Valley Career Technology Center (OH)
Montgomery Blair High School (MD)
Moorestown High School (NJ)
Mount Vernon High School (WA)
Neuqua Valley High School (IL)
New Tech Academy at Wayne High School (IN)
Oakton High School (VA)
Poly Prep (NY)
Riverdale Country School (NY)
Saint Ann’s School (NY)
Stony Point High School (TX)
California State University, Monterey Bay
Florida State College at Jacksonville
Georgetown University (DC)
Grinnell College (IA)
Indiana University
Oklahoma State University
Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts
Purdue University (IN)
St. Lawrence University (NY)
St. Cloud State University (MN)
Texas Tech University
University of South Alabama
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
University of Michigan
Wellesley College (MA)